Swiss consumer prices rose 1.5% year on year in October, up from 1.0% in September and above the 1.3% consensus. On the month, prices rose 0.2% against expectations for no change. The franc strengthened on the release, but the details matter for how much of that move it can keep.
Imports accounted for the monthly increase
| Swiss CPI measure | October, month on month | October, year on year |
|---|---|---|
| Headline | +0.2% | +1.5% |
| Core | 0.0% | +0.5% |
| Domestic products | −0.1% | +0.8% |
| Imported products | +1.2% | +3.7% |
Imports make up about 22% of the Swiss basket, yet they added 0.263 percentage points to October’s monthly inflation. Domestic products offset 0.057 points. Heating oil, petrol and diesel were among the items that cost more; hotels and foreign package holidays were among those that cost less. The overall CPI reached 101.7 on the December 2025 = 100 base.
Core inflation, which excludes fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel, was unchanged on the month and matched expectations at 0.5% for the year. The surprise was concentrated enough to matter for the exchange rate without yet showing that Swiss businesses are raising prices across the board.
What this changes for the SNB and the franc
In September, the SNB kept its policy rate at 0%. Its forecast, conditional on that rate staying unchanged, put inflation at 1.2% on average in the fourth quarter. October’s 1.5% sits above that projection, but November and December still count. The SNB had already allowed for higher energy costs. Monday’s oil sell-off came after October’s prices were measured. If cheaper fuel and a firmer franc persist, they could limit the next rise in import costs.
EUR/CHF fell from 0.9143 to a reported low of 0.9134 in roughly four minutes, a nine-pip move in the franc’s favour. CHF also moved to the front of the eight-hour currency basket. It had led Monday’s session before the CPI release, so today’s surprise adds to existing demand. It cannot explain yesterday’s strength. Just before the release, ECB policymaker Dimitar Radev had kept further euro-area tightening in play. Wednesday’s euro inflation figures could therefore test the other side of EUR/CHF.
What Invalidates This Thesis
If EUR/CHF gives back the release move and the franc loses its gains against other currencies through London, the initial support deserves less weight. The opposite policy risk is a run of higher core and domestic readings, backed by firmer Swiss short-rate expectations. That would make the case for a change in SNB policy stronger than today’s headline does on its own.
Sources: Swiss Federal Statistical Office, October CPI and detailed contributions, pp. 1 and 3; SNB September policy assessment and quarterly forecast, p. 3; SECO release schedule; SNB event calendar; FSO CPI release dates.