US futures are mixed following the overnight technology rebound, with Nasdaq futures slightly lower. European shares are also struggling: HSBC’s earnings miss is weighing on London, while Mercedes’ guidance cut is hurting autos. The improvement in AI sentiment has done little to settle questions about financing costs and returns on investment. Risk appetite remains uneven ahead of the Fed.
The dollar is holding its recovery, with DXY above 102 and EUR/USD near 1.1142. Treasury prices are modestly higher, putting the ten-year yield around 4.99%, but that alone says little about expectations for short-term policy rates. The previous bearish USD view remains on hold. Today’s data will help test whether demand is strong enough to keep further tightening in play. Within durable goods, core capital-goods orders, shipments and revisions will be more useful than a headline driven by aircraft orders.
Euro weakness remains the focus
French consumer confidence fell to 80 from 85, euro-area banks reported tighter lending standards, and French bond spreads have given back part of Monday’s improvement.
Energy remains another vulnerability. QatarEnergy has extended the suspension of LNG deliveries to Edison through December, affecting three additional cargoes. That adds to Europe’s winter supply risks, even with gas prices easing this morning. A challenge to Airbus financing under the US–EU trade truce adds further uncertainty, though no new tariff action has been confirmed.
Oil continues to react sharply to headlines. Earlier gains following reported attacks near Ras Tanura faded, while subsequent reports of explosions in Riyadh have kept escalation risk in focus. Any lasting loss of production remains unclear.
Saudi exports reportedly exceeded seven million barrels a day through 22 October. Those figures predate today’s incidents, so they cannot confirm current supply conditions. Iran’s seven-day proposal also remains a proposal: there is no implemented agreement reopening Hormuz.
Currency performance and trade implications
NZD and AUD lead today, with USD also positive. NZD has regained momentum since the earlier briefing. CAD remains strongest over the week but has softened today, making it a less compelling long candidate for the immediate session.
GBP remains soft ahead of the Budget despite firmer shop-price inflation. JPY has recovered in recent hours but is still weaker on both the day and week. CHF remains weakest today; the geopolitical headlines have yet to generate broad, sustained demand for the franc.
EUR/NZD has stronger confirmation than it did earlier. Continued euro weakness is now being met by renewed NZD strength. The fundamental case remains intact, although conviction is still low ahead of the RBNZ.
A 25bp hike is already heavily anticipated, with roughly a 93% probability in this morning’s pricing estimate. The hike itself therefore offers limited scope for surprise. Guidance on further tightening, and whether NZD holds its gains after the decision, will matter more.
EUR/CAD remains a valid weekly idea, though today’s CAD weakness needs watching. The macro conditions behind the EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY ideas are unchanged.
Earnings and the wider market
US earnings have delivered a mixed picture. Coca-Cola and UPS beat expectations, with UPS also raising its outlook. PayPal beat on earnings and raised its profit outlook despite missing revenue expectations. Boeing reported a wider adjusted loss than expected. Visa, Robinhood and Seagate remain on today’s earnings watch.
Gold has slipped below $4,000 alongside the firmer dollar. As with CHF, the price action shows that geopolitical tension is not translating into gains across every defensive asset.