The franc has surrendered its CPI gains, AUD is recovering from its post-RBA sell-off, and the dollar has improved ahead of New York. Oil is higher as Iran headlines pull between diplomacy and escalation. JOLTS and tonight’s elections remain the main US tests.

At 11:00 UTC, the Stoxx 600 was down 0.3%, S&P futures 0.1% lower and Nasdaq futures 0.3% higher, despite disappointing Apple and Palantir guidance. WTI rose 1.4% and Brent 1.1%, recovering only part of Monday’s sharp fall. The US ten-year yield stood at 4.917%; gold and copper were lower. This remains an uneven market, with energy inflation and technology funding concerns unresolved.

CHF — the inflation surprise has not produced lasting buying. Headline CPI rose to 1.5% y/y versus 1.3% expected, but core stayed at 0.5%, with imported prices driving the monthly increase. By 12:32 UTC, CHF was negative over both the eight-hour and whole-day windows. It still leads the week, but that does not establish fresh demand now. The immediate CHF-long case has weakened.

AUD — recovering, but still the day’s weakest currency. The expected hike to 4.85% came with a 6–3 vote and Bullock’s preference to assess incoming data. Higher inflation forecasts did not deliver the additional policy support buyers wanted. AUD’s rebound argues against chasing the initial fall; it has not yet restored the previous long thesis. That needs sustained broad gains and firmer relative rate expectations.

CAD and NZD — leading the day, with important caveats. CAD has recovered alongside oil, but Monday’s manufacturing contraction and the preceding energy collapse still limit conviction. Macklem and Rogers testify this afternoon. NZD’s strength comes before tonight’s labour report: it does not yet establish that the RBNZ’s expected path has improved.

GBP and EUR — sterling has the clearer intraday support. GBP remains positive across the recent-hours, day and week windows, with Thursday’s BoE guidance its main domestic test. Rising UK long-term yields driven by energy concerns are not automatically favourable policy support. EUR is near flat on the day and slightly weaker over eight hours, while retaining substantial weekly gains. ECB tightening comments and Wednesday’s inflation report remain obstacles to an unconditional euro short.

USD and JPY — the dollar has recovered; the yen still lags. USD is now positive on the day, challenging the earlier weaker-dollar reading. JPY remains weak across all three windows, with energy costs and overseas yields presenting headwinds. The US ten-year yield alone cannot establish fresh Fed repricing: watch JOLTS and the response in short-term yields.

Iran headlines remain capable of reversing these moves. At 12:17 UTC, Reuters-cited reporting said Qatari mediators expected US and Iranian feedback on a proposal within 36 hours. That is a response deadline, not an agreement. Reports of the Qeshm strike and maritime incidents keep escalation risk alive. Election outcomes also need to be assessed through fiscal policy, trade, yields and actual market reaction—not a fixed party-to-dollar rule.

Trade focus

The morning CHF-buying preference has lost immediate flow confirmation. AUD longs remain unsupported, but its recovery also makes chasing shorts less attractive. EUR/GBP remains conditional on euro inflation and BoE guidance. NZD’s strength is a pre-release observation, not permission to bypass its labour report.

What Invalidates This Thesis

Sustained AUD gains with stronger relative rate expectations would challenge its post-RBA weakness. Renewed broad CHF buying would challenge the fading-demand reading. Another lasting oil decline would undermine CAD’s support. Softer US labour evidence that lowers relative short-term yields and brings broad dollar selling would challenge USD’s recovery.