MARKET ANALYSIS
Research
Currency outlooks, market recaps and fundamental analysis. Explore the drivers behind each view and the evidence that could change it.
5 publications · Page 1 of 1
BoJ keeps hikes in play, but the yen struggles to hold its gains
The Bank of Japan held rates at 1.25%, as expected, in an 8–1 vote, with Takata favouring an increase to 1.50%. Its assessment of inflation is becoming firmer. The yen’s ability to turn that into sustained strength remains less convincing.
ECB Holds at 2.50% as Lagarde Keeps Another Hike in Play
The ECB left rates unchanged. The euro’s early sell-off did not survive the press conference.
Fed holds at 3.75–4.00% Warsh keeps December open, dollar slips
The Fed held interest rates at 3.75–4.00%, as expected. The vote was 10–2, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack both favouring another quarter-point hike. That keeps pressure for further tightening alive. It does not settle December.
BoC hikes to 2.50% — CAD takes it in stride
The Bank of Canada has ended its long pause, raising its policy rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.50%. The hike was expected. CAD’s muted initial response is a useful reminder: delivering the expected decision does not give the market much new to buy.
RBNZ: A Surprise Hold, With More Hikes Still in Play
The RBNZ surprises with a 4–3 hold at 2.75%, sending NZD lower. Hawkish guidance keeps future hikes in play, but the decision and the message need separate assessments.