MARKET ANALYSIS
Research
Currency outlooks, market recaps and fundamental analysis. Explore the drivers behind each view and the evidence that could change it.
19 publications · Page 2 of 2
Fed holds at 3.75–4.00% Warsh keeps December open, dollar slips
The Fed held interest rates at 3.75–4.00%, as expected. The vote was 10–2, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack both favouring another quarter-point hike. That keeps pressure for further tightening alive. It does not settle December.
BoC hikes to 2.50% — CAD takes it in stride
The Bank of Canada has ended its long pause, raising its policy rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.50%. The hike was expected. CAD’s muted initial response is a useful reminder: delivering the expected decision does not give the market much new to buy.
US Morning Briefing Wednesday, 28 October 2026
CAD has taken the lead over recent hours ahead of the Bank of Canada, while USD and JPY have faded. AUD remains strong today and this week. NZD has recovered slightly during the European session but remains the day's clear laggard. The BoC and Fed now decide…
EU Morning Briefing Wednesday, 28 October 2026
The RBNZ surprise is the main change this morning: NZD remains heavily sold, while AUD retains inflation support. The UK Budget, Bank of Canada and Fed decisions make today unusually dependent on policy outcomes.
RBNZ: A Surprise Hold, With More Hikes Still in Play
The RBNZ surprises with a 4–3 hold at 2.75%, sending NZD lower. Hawkish guidance keeps future hikes in play, but the decision and the message need separate assessments.
The RBA Still Has Work to Do
Australian inflation surprises to the upside, keeping another RBA hike in play. The AUD outlook depends on relative rate expectations and whether the initial gains hold.
Daily Market Recap Tuesday, 27 October 2026
The day developed into a technology-led equity recovery alongside a firmer dollar and lower oil. AI financing developments helped sentiment, while US data offered reassurance on demand. The underlying figures were mixed, however, and the Treasury move did not produce a fresh…
US Morning Briefing Tuesday, 27 October 2026
US futures are mixed following the overnight technology rebound, with Nasdaq futures slightly lower. European shares are also struggling: HSBC’s earnings miss is weighing on London, while Mercedes’ guidance cut is hurting autos. The improvement in AI sentiment has done little…
EU Morning Briefing Tuesday, 27 October 2026
The AI-led rebound has lifted risk appetite, though financing concerns and Middle East supply risks remain unresolved. US stocks closed higher on Monday, led by technology, with Japanese and Korean shares following overnight. China lagged despite stronger monthly industrial…