BOE / CENTRAL BANK
Bank of England
Official policy, market expectations and what they mean for GBP.
GBP currency outlookPolicy snapshot
Last policy decision
17 Sept 2026Our policy assessment
- Policy focus
- Could higher energy prices lead to faster wage growth and more expensive services?
- Key risk
- Businesses may raise prices and workers may seek higher pay, even as hiring and spending slow.
- What to watch
- The next decision and October inflation details should test whether service prices and private-sector wages reinforce each other.
The policy debate
Our forward-looking assessment has not yet been published. The official facts and policy tests below remain available.
Evidence and upcoming tests
What changed
Separate evidence available at the last decision from releases since then- Policy decision · · Available at last decision
The BoE said the risk of higher inflation had increased since its July report, partly because energy costs remained high.
Policy implication: This was the published policy decision. Later wage and inflation releases should be assessed separately.
Evidence that matters
Selected readings beyond the two headline indicators above, with their limits explained.
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | Policy implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private-sector regular payUK AWE ex bonuses · three-month annual growth, SAReleased 20 Oct 2026Official source | 3.0%Jun–Aug 2026 | 2.9%May–Jul 2026 | Pay growth has edged higher, which could sustain service costs. The overlapping three-month windows make this a weak signal on its own. |
| Real GDP growthUK real GDP · quarter on quarterOfficial source | 0.5%Q2 2026 | 0.6%Q1 2026 | Growth has moderated, potentially reducing demand pressure. A quarterly GDP reading alone says little about the strength of the labour market. |
How to read these figures
CPI, HICP and PCE measure consumer-price changes, using different national methods. “Core” or “underlying” measures seek the broader price pattern. GDP measures economic output. “Seasonally adjusted” removes usual seasonal movements. One release rarely establishes a trend; compare the reference periods as well as the values.
Upcoming tests
Consequential official events. Times are shown in UTC only when verified.
- Economic releaseCPI inflation (Oct)
Are services and underlying inflation broadening, or are volatile items doing most of the work?
Image credits
Building: Profimedia / iDNES
Andrew Bailey: Reuters
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