SNB / CENTRAL BANK
Swiss National Bank
Official policy, market expectations and what they mean for CHF.
CHF currency outlookPolicy snapshot
Last policy decision
24 Sept 2026Our policy assessment
- Policy focus
- Can Swiss inflation stay below 2% as energy prices and the franc change?
- Key risk
- Higher energy costs could push prices up, while global uncertainty and weaker trade could slow the economy.
- What to watch
- The October Swiss CPI release should show whether energy and currency moves are lifting inflation beyond a short-lived effect.
The policy debate
Our forward-looking assessment has not yet been published. The official facts and policy tests below remain available.
Evidence and upcoming tests
What changed
Separate evidence available at the last decision from releases since then- Policy decision · · Available at last decision
The SNB raised its inflation forecasts compared with June because oil prices were higher and the franc was weaker.
Policy implication: The bank described its outlook in the meeting statement; newer inflation and currency developments need separate review.
Evidence that matters
Selected readings beyond the two headline indicators above, with their limits explained.
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | Policy implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conditional inflation forecastAnnual average, conditional on 0% SNB rateA forecast, not a realised inflation reading; no monthly change is implied.Official source | 0.8%2027 projection · Sep 2026 | —Not directly comparable | The bank's low forecast leaves space for patient policy, conditional on its stated rate assumption. This is not an observed inflation print or a market forecast. |
| Real GDP growthSwiss real GDP · sport-event-adjusted q/qOfficial source | 1.5%Q2 2026 | 0.5%Q1 2026 | Headline growth appears firm, but unusually strong pharmaceutical production inflated the total; broader domestic activity may be weaker. |
How to read these figures
CPI, HICP and PCE measure consumer-price changes, using different national methods. “Core” or “underlying” measures seek the broader price pattern. GDP measures economic output. “Seasonally adjusted” removes usual seasonal movements. One release rarely establishes a trend; compare the reference periods as well as the values.
Upcoming tests
Consequential official events. Times are shown in UTC only when verified.
- Economic releaseSwiss CPI (Oct)
Are imported energy costs or franc movements pushing sustained prices nearer the SNB's stability boundary?
Image credits
Building: SWI swissinfo.ch
Martin Schlegel: Tribune de Genève
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