RBNZ / CENTRAL BANK
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Official policy, market expectations and what they mean for NZD.
NZD currency outlookPolicy snapshot
Last policy decision
28 Oct 2026Our policy assessment
- Policy focus
- How can the RBNZ bring inflation back to 2% without harming the economic recovery?
- Key risk
- Price rises are spreading to more goods and services even though household spending remains weak.
- What to watch
- The third-quarter labour report should show whether rising unemployment is enough to contain domestically generated inflation.
The policy debate
Our forward-looking assessment has not yet been published. The official facts and policy tests below remain available.
Evidence and upcoming tests
What changed
Separate evidence available at the last decision from releases since then- Policy decision · · Available at last decision
Overall inflation eased from 4.1% to 3.7%, but the RBNZ said price increases had spread more widely.
Policy implication: The bank's latest assessment was official guidance, not a subsequently released test of that guidance.
Evidence that matters
Selected readings beyond the two headline indicators above, with their limits explained.
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | Policy implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| UnemploymentHLFS · seasonally adjustedOfficial source | 5.6%Q2 2026 | 5.4%Q1 2026 | A higher jobless rate points to weaker labour demand and less wage pressure. It predates the newest inflation report. |
| Real GDP growthNew Zealand production GDP · q/qOfficial source | 0.2%Q2 2026 | 0.9%Q1 2026 | A sharply slower quarterly expansion argues against unnecessary tightening. This backward-looking number cannot settle the more recent inflation trend. |
How to read these figures
CPI, HICP and PCE measure consumer-price changes, using different national methods. “Core” or “underlying” measures seek the broader price pattern. GDP measures economic output. “Seasonally adjusted” removes usual seasonal movements. One release rarely establishes a trend; compare the reference periods as well as the values.
Upcoming tests
Consequential official events. Times are shown in UTC only when verified.
- Economic releaseLabour market (Q3)
Do unemployment, hours and wage growth together confirm enough slack to ease domestic price pressure?
- Economic releaseCPI inflation (Q4)
Is the latest inflation rise broadening beyond imported costs, or beginning to reverse?
Related research
RBNZ: A Surprise Hold, With More Hikes Still in Play
The RBNZ surprises with a 4–3 hold at 2.75%, sending NZD lower. Hawkish guidance keeps future hikes in play, but the decision and the message need separate assessments.
Image credits
Building: Panamitsu · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anna Breman: Sveriges Riksbank (2024 conference still)
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