ECB / CENTRAL BANK
European Central Bank
Official policy, market expectations and what they mean for EUR.
EUR currency outlookPolicy snapshot
Last policy decision
29 Oct 2026Three key policy rates unchanged
Our policy assessment
- Policy focus
- Will higher energy prices push up other prices and wages, or will the effect fade?
- Key risk
- A longer rise in energy costs could push inflation up while weaker growth makes further rate increases harder.
- What to watch
- The October flash inflation breakdown should show whether energy costs are spreading to underlying prices.
The policy debate
Our forward-looking assessment has not yet been published. The official facts and policy tests below remain available.
Evidence and upcoming tests
What changed
Separate evidence available at the last decision from releases since then- Policy decision · · Available at last decision
The ECB said higher energy costs had lasted longer and become more severe since the previous meeting. Borrowing conditions had also tightened.
Policy implication: The meeting itself changed the official assessment of the energy shock and financing conditions; it is not a subsequent data release.
Evidence that matters
Selected readings beyond the two headline indicators above, with their limits explained.
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | Policy implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compensation per employeeEuro area · annual growthReleased 29 Oct 2026Official source | 3.3%Q2 2026 | 3.6%Q1 2026 | Slower annual wage growth eases one source of domestic inflation pressure. The series is backward-looking and predates the latest energy shock. |
| Real GDP growthEuro area · seasonally/calendar adjusted q/q · preliminary flashReleased 30 Oct 2026Official source | 0.4%Q3 2026 | 0.6%Q2 2026 | Slower growth could limit firms' ability to pass on costs. This is a preliminary estimate, not a detailed account of domestic demand. |
How to read these figures
CPI, HICP and PCE measure consumer-price changes, using different national methods. “Core” or “underlying” measures seek the broader price pattern. GDP measures economic output. “Seasonally adjusted” removes usual seasonal movements. One release rarely establishes a trend; compare the reference periods as well as the values.
Upcoming tests
Consequential official events. Times are shown in UTC only when verified.
- Economic releaseFlash HICP (Oct)
Does the acceleration remain concentrated in energy, or are services and core components beginning to follow?
Related research
ECB Holds at 2.50% as Lagarde Keeps Another Hike in Play
The ECB left rates unchanged. The euro’s early sell-off did not survive the press conference.
Image credits
Building: Tobiasi0 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Christine Lagarde: © European Union 2023 – Source: EP · CC BY 4.0
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