RBA / CENTRAL BANK
Reserve Bank of Australia
Official policy, market expectations and what they mean for AUD.
AUD currency outlookPolicy snapshot
Last policy decision
29 Sept 2026Our policy assessment
- Policy focus
- Are current interest rates high enough to stop inflation staying elevated?
- Key risk
- Energy and other business costs remain high even as consumer spending and housing activity slow.
- What to watch
- The next RBA statement and October labour and inflation releases will test whether price pressures justify additional tightening.
The policy debate
Our forward-looking assessment has not yet been published. The official facts and policy tests below remain available.
Evidence and upcoming tests
What changed
Separate evidence available at the last decision from releases since then- Policy decision · · Available at last decision
The RBA raised its main interest rate by 0.25 percentage points after inflation risks flagged in August started to appear.
Policy implication: This is the last official decision; the subsequent inflation print should be evaluated as new evidence.
Evidence that matters
Selected readings beyond the two headline indicators above, with their limits explained.
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | Policy implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trimmed-mean CPIUnderlying inflation · year on yearOfficial source | 3.6%Sep 2026 | 3.5%Aug 2026 | A higher underlying inflation rate keeps concern about persistent price rises alive. One reading is insufficient to establish a fresh acceleration. |
| Real GDP growthAustralia chain-volume GDP · seasonally adjusted q/qOfficial source | 0.4%Q2 2026 | 0.3%Q1 2026 | Growth has edged higher, but demand composition and household spending determine whether it threatens inflation. |
How to read these figures
CPI, HICP and PCE measure consumer-price changes, using different national methods. “Core” or “underlying” measures seek the broader price pattern. GDP measures economic output. “Seasonally adjusted” removes usual seasonal movements. One release rarely establishes a trend; compare the reference periods as well as the values.
Upcoming tests
Consequential official events. Times are shown in UTC only when verified.
- Economic releaseLabour force (Oct)
Are employment, unemployment and hours worked slowing together, or does labour demand remain resilient?
- Economic releaseCPI inflation (Oct)
Do trimmed-mean and service prices confirm broad persistence after the latest policy decision?
Related research
The RBA Still Has Work to Do
Australian inflation surprises to the upside, keeping another RBA hike in play. The AUD outlook depends on relative rate expectations and whether the initial gains hold.
Image credits
Building: Ché Lydia Xyang / Wikimedia Commons (Canberra building) · CC BY-SA 3.0
Michele Bullock: Australian Financial Review
Images are cropped, desaturated and faded for presentation; chair photo backgrounds are removed with AI-assisted editing. Where a source uses a share-alike licence, this image treatment is available under the same licence. No affiliation or endorsement is implied.